How we got here · Gas & energy
Who decides what you pay for gas and electricity?
Oil, refining, utilities, and margins
Timeline · newest first
2026→Event
U.S.–Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis
After U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran (late February 2026), the conflict closes or severely restricts the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for a huge share of seaborne oil. Brent spikes above $120; U.S. pump and diesel prices jump; six months in, markets still reprice every strike and blockade threat.
Nuance U.S. shale can cushion some supply — it cannot erase a Hormuz disruption. Pump prices are still global crude + refining + freight, not a single presidential dial.
2022Event
War, LNG, and another energy shock
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine jolts global oil and gas markets. U.S. pump prices spike; Europe’s gas crisis accelerates LNG demand that U.S. exporters help fill.
2008–2010sTech
Shale boom — U.S. becomes a top producer
Horizontal drilling and fracking unlock huge U.S. oil and gas output. Prices become more tied to global benchmarks and domestic refining bottlenecks than to “Peak Oil” scarcity stories.
1990s–2001Policy
Electricity restructuring — and California’s crisis
Some states deregulate generation and retail power. California’s 2000–01 crisis shows how poorly designed markets, market power, and drought/hydro shortfalls can explode bills and blackouts.
1975Policy
Strategic Petroleum Reserve & CAFE begin
Post-embargo policy builds the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and fuel-economy standards. Energy security becomes a standing federal project — not only a private market.
1973Event
OPEC embargo and the modern oil politics era
Arab OPEC members cut oil to the U.S. after the Yom Kippur War. Lines at the pump teach Americans that foreign producers and geopolitics can set domestic prices overnight.
1930sInstitution
Domestic oil proration and mid-century regulation
State regulators (famously Texas) and later federal rules manage overproduction and waste. The “free market at the pump” always sat inside a managed commodity system.
What people disagree about
- How much of today’s pump prices is Hormuz risk premium vs. refining bottlenecks vs. retailer margins.
- Whether utilities should be more competitive markets or tighter regulated monopolies.
Where we are now
Right now the chain runs war → Hormuz → global crude → U.S. refining → your pump. Domestic production helps; it does not float America off the world price.
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